In China, steel rebar futures hovered near eight-month lows at around CNY 3,020 per tonne at the end of May, weighed down by continued demand concerns. Trading on Shanghai’s futures market was closed on June 2 for a national holiday, limiting immediate market reactions. Adding further pressure to steel prices, Beijing announced a major policy shift: banning the sale of homes before construction is completed. This measure threatens to squeeze a key funding channel for property developers and may deepen the strain on the real estate sector, one of the largest consumers of steel.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on Saturday that it will raise oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The decision came after a virtual meeting involving core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Although a smaller increase of 134,000 bpd was initially considered, the group revised its plan, citing a “stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” including low oil inventories. OPEC+ emphasized that the pace of output hikes could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The group is cautiously unwinding recent production cuts to maintain market balance. Goldman Sachs anticipates another 410,000 bpd increase to be finalized in August, which may be the last change under the current framework.

In bond markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.42% on Monday, as investors weighed the potential economic impact of escalating trade tensions. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also remained stable around 1.51%, reflecting a cautious stance ahead of this week’s key economic data releases.

Following the tariff announcement, China rejected Trump’s claim that it breached a trade agreement reached in Geneva last month, casting doubt on whether a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would take place soon. Still, White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested the leaders could speak as early as this week. Attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. data, particularly Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which may shed light on how shifting trade policies are influencing the broader economy.

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