Recent data suggested labor resilience, with jobless claims edging up only modestly and announced layoffs at their lowest since mid-2024. Expectations remain centered on the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in January, while easing later in the year is priced in. The dollar strengthened broadly, posting its strongest weekly showing against the euro.

Bond markets face a potentially volatile session, with the U.S. jobs report landing alongside a possible Supreme Court decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs. Employment data could reinforce the case for a policy pause, while a weaker print may reopen easing bets. A ruling against the tariffs could add pressure to Treasuries by lifting deficit concerns, pushing long-end yields higher and steepening the curve.

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