US inflation accelerated to 3.8%, its highest level since 2023, driven largely by the Iran conflict and surging energy costs, reopening discussions around additional Fed tightening.
This week’s analysis highlights a global economy struggling with an "energy shock" caused by the ongoing US–Iran conflict and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has redrawn the OPEC supply map; while Iran’s output has only fallen 11%, neighbors like Kuwait and Iraq have seen production plunge by 69% and 63%, respectively, due to a lack of export routes. Also, global food prices have hit a three-year high, and the US headline CPI is forecast to surge to 3.4% annually as energy costs leak into broader production chains.
Jerome Powell will remain on the Fed Board after his term as Chair ends, reinforcing institutional independence from political pressure. While the Board remains divided on the timing of rate cuts, Powell emphasized that data, not politics, will guide future moves.
The latest weekly developments highlight a turning point across policy, technology, and market structure.
In Hungary, Peter Magyar and his reformist movement secured a commanding victory in Hungary’s elections, ending Viktor Orban’s long-standing rule.
A two-week US-Iran ceasefire triggered a relief rally, lifting global equities while causing oil and gas prices to pull back. However, the market remains cautious as the truce is viewed as a fragile pause rather than a permanent resolution.
Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026, driven by a sharp rebound in energy prices which rose 4.9% after a prior contraction. While services and food inflation showed slight moderation, the headline spike complicates the European Central Bank’s path toward its 2% target.
Markets are increasingly driven by headlines rather than fundamentals, with shifting US–Iran rhetoric moving oil, equities, and risk sentiment rapidly; energy tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep inflation risks elevated, supporting the dollar (DXY ~100+) and pressuring gold and silver, though gold remains structurally supported above ~$4,500.
