The first week of September centers on U.S. data, with PCE inflation, ISM PMIs, and nonfarm payrolls expected to guide the Fed’s September decision. Unemployment is seen near a four-year high, while wage growth stays steady. Europe reports mixed inflation, with Germany surprising to the upside, and Asia tracks PMI surveys, trade figures, and key central bank decisions.

Politics added fresh tension. Trump’s removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook sparked concerns over central bank independence, while France faces another government crisis as Prime Minister Bayrou heads into a September 8 confidence vote on his €44 billion reform package.

Markets show signs of strain: junk bond yields have compressed to levels last seen before 2022’s hikes, raising fears of complacency, while U.S. PCE data confirmed sticky service-sector inflation. Germany’s inflation also accelerated, testing the ECB’s resolve.

Commodities remain active. Gold tested $3,500 on safe-haven demand, silver held above $38, and Brent eased to $67 as supply risks from Russia-Ukraine strikes clashed with weaker U.S. demand. Bitcoin stayed rangebound near $108,000 as ETF flows slowed.

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