At the same time, volatility is priced high despite relatively calm price action, while geopolitical risks highlight deeper US–China competition over energy and supply chains.

Private credit is emerging as a key systemic risk due to liquidity mismatches, while energy markets show divergence (Chevron ~+10% vs Total ~+15%) driven by hedging strategies.

Global impacts are visible: Russia gains approximately $150 million per day from oil, Japan releases 80 million barrels (a 45-day supply), Kuwait's output drops from 3 million to 500,000 barrels per day, and UK inflation holds at 3%, while central banks face “higher for longer” pressure.

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