The euro held near $1.16 on ECB policy expectations and hopes for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. Gold eased to $3,345 on peace prospects but stayed supported by Fed cut bets. Brent crude hovered around $66 as Trump–Putin talks eased supply concerns. Bitcoin traded above $122,000 after breaking key resistance, with a target of $150,000.

President Trump signaled tariffs up to 250% on imported drugs, imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, and threatened India with tariffs over Russian oil purchases. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned early, giving Trump more scope to reshape Fed leadership. He narrowed his Fed Chair shortlist to four candidates, favoring easier policy, and accused the BLS commissioner of manipulating job data.

The BoE cut rates by 25 bps to 4% in a narrow vote, its first cut since 2023. Inflation is expected to peak at 4% in September, and the central bank raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.25%. Officials will reassess their bond-sale program amid gilt market stress.

China backed Brazil against new U.S. tariffs, and Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. U.S.–Russia talks made “constructive” progress ahead of a ceasefire deadline. Apple boosted its U.S. investment plan by $100 billion. Gold futures hit a record $3,534 after new U.S. tariffs on 1-kg gold bars, widening the futures-spot spread. S&P affirmed China’s A+ rating. Intel shares fell after Trump called for a board member’s resignation over China ties.

Markets start quietly with Japan’s Mountain Day holiday. Key events include U.S. CPI on Tuesday, German CPI on Wednesday, UK Q2 GDP and U.S. PPI on Thursday, and Japan Q2 GDP and U.S. retail sales on Friday.

Please take a look at our weekly report below for further information.