The Federal Reserve kept rates at 4.25%-4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, despite political pressure for cuts. A rare dissent emerged as two Fed members voted for easing, raising speculation over internal divisions. July’s nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000, with previous months revised down by 258,000, signaling a cooling labor market. Inflation remained firm, with the PCE price index up 0.3% in June.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, its fifth month of contraction and below expectations. Supplier deliveries and employment were the weakest areas, though production improved. In Japan, the BoJ held rates at 0.50% but raised its core inflation outlook to 2.7% for FY2025, while retail sales posted a 2% annual increase in June, marking 39 consecutive months of growth.

Trade tensions escalated as Trump finalized a $750B energy deal with the EU, imposed tariffs on India and Brazil, and agreed to a 90-day tariff pause with China. Copper markets sold off after the U.S. excluded refined copper from new tariffs, triggering fresh volatility.

Technically, EUR/USD bounced above 1.15 after weak U.S. jobs data lifted Fed rate cut bets. Gold retreated after a sharp rally, while Brent crude dropped below $68 following OPEC+ supply hikes. Bitcoin remained range-bound between $112K and $118K amid mixed macro signals.

In the week ahead, attention turns to U.S. services PMI, ISM reports, and the Bank of England’s rate decision, with markets poised for reactions based on any shifts in monetary policy expectations.