These tensions are amplified by speculation regarding a potential U.S. strike on Iran, with Trump warning of 25% tariffs on any nation trading with them. Additionally, a new 25% national security tariff has been initiated on advanced AI semiconductors, while in the corporate sector, Apple and Google have formed a major AI partnership.

The U.S. economy shows a labor market cooling into a sustainable rhythm, with the unemployment rate gradually descending and wage growth contained. December CPI data indicated that inflation remains concentrated in food and services, while core price growth stays measured at 2.6%. Amid this backdrop, Jerome Powell has reasserted the Federal Reserve’s institutional independence against political pressure for lower rates, a conflict that remains a critical confidence driver for global investors.

In currency and commodity markets, EUR/USD is testing monthly lows near $1.1630, facing resistance at 1.1650. Gold eyes resistance at $4,715 with key gap support at $4,595–$4,600, while Silver faces an upper channel ceiling at $95.50. Bitcoin remains capped below the $95,000 mark, maintaining a primary floor at $92,412.

The economic calendar is packed as U.S. agencies clear post-shutdown backlogs. Following Monday's MLK Day closure, focus shifts to Wednesday’s UK CPI and a speech by President Trump. Thursday brings the final U.S. Q3 GDP reading and the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The week concludes with the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and Flash PMIs for the U.S. and Europe, alongside major earnings from Netflix, 3M, J&J, and Visa.