US Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Year Low in November

US consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in November, recording one of the steepest monthly declines since 2021. The Conference Board’s headline index fell to 88.7 from 95 in October, well below expectations and marking its weakest level since April. The reading also slipped beneath sentiment levels observed during the height of inflation in mid-2022, signalling growing caution among households.

Recession Risks Intensify, Expectations Sink

The Conference Board noted that every major component of the survey either weakened or showed no improvement. Households expressed less confidence in their current financial situations and became more doubtful about future income and the strength of the job market. Economists highlighted a particularly sharp deterioration in short-term labor expectations, raising concern that faith in economic stability is fading.

The expectations index dropped to 63.2, a level that historically signals an early recession when it remains below 80 for a prolonged period. Rising living costs, policy uncertainty, and tariff pressures all contributed to the souring mood.

Key survey shifts included:

Fewer respondents describing business conditions as favorable
Decline in the share of Americans who believe jobs are widely available
Increased concern over future income and financial security

The downturn in sentiment suggests consumers may reduce spending in the months ahead, especially on non-essential goods. A pullback in demand could weigh on domestic growth as 2026 approaches.

For policymakers and investors, the November reading will be a critical data point in assessing whether confidence stabilizes or weakens further. If household caution persists, the risk of a demand slowdown may rise, pushing economic momentum onto a more fragile path.

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