Fed’s Tone Limits October Gains Across Markets (3-7 November)The final trading week of October closed with renewed dollar strength, cautious central banks, and uneven market sentiment across major assets.
U.S. Inflation Softens Ahead of Trump–Xi Talks (27 - 31 October)The dollar index slipped to 98.8 after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, reinforcing bets on Fed rate cuts next week and in December. Markets now price a 99% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Trade Relief Lifts Sentiment Before Inflation Data (20-24 October)Easing U.S.-China trade tensions and improving risk sentiment helped stabilize major currencies, commodities, and bond yields.
Rising Trade Friction Hits Dollar (13-17 October)The dollar index slipped below 99 on Friday as renewed trade conflicts between the US and China rattled investors.
Dollar Weakness Lifts Gold and Euro (06–10 October)The dollar index fell to 97.7, down 0.5% for the week, pressured by growth concerns and labor market weakness. The ongoing government shutdown delayed key data, including nonfarm payrolls, while ISM services stagnated and ADP payrolls fell. Signs of slowdown prompted the FOMC to resume rate cuts, with markets now pricing in two more by year-end.
ECB Hints at End of Easing Cycle (29 Sep-3 Oct)The euro dropped under $1.17, ending flat for September.
Treasuries Rise as Fed Cuts Rates (22-26 September)Inflation wording adjusted to “increased,” signaling data-based caution.
Yields Edge Higher, UK Data Points to Stagnation (15-19 September) Oil gained on renewed supply concerns from Russia, the euro strengthened on ECB signals, and UK data proved lingering growth challenges.
