Delayed U.S. Data Returns to the Agenda (17-21 November)

With the government reopened and a backlog of U.S. data finally set for release, markets stepped into the week with a sharper focus on incoming numbers and shifting policy expectations.

Currency moves centered on the dollar’s rebound above 99.3 ahead of Thursday’s jobs report, while commodities and global bond markets adjusted to fresh signals from major central banks. Across assets, traders positioned for a busy stretch of economic updates that will shape views on interest rates through year-end.

Currencies

US Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar index edged above 99.3, regaining some of last week’s losses before the flood of delayed U.S. economic data following the end of the government shutdown. The September jobs report, scheduled for Thursday, will be the main highlight, while other delayed releases, including S&P flash PMIs, ADP employment, and housing data, will guide Fed policy expectations. Fed officials have recently questioned the need for further easing, and market odds for a 25 bps December rate cut have dropped to 46% from 88% a month earlier.
EUR/USD: The euro climbed above $1.16, nearing its strongest level since late October, as risk sentiment improved after the 43-day U.S. shutdown officially ended. President Trump signed the bill reopening the government, clearing the way for the release of delayed economic reports. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged, with markets pricing only a 40% chance of a cut by September 2026. Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed the Bank’s cautious stance.
GBP/USD: The pound weakened to around $1.31, close to a seven-month low, after reports that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves dropped income tax hike plans ahead of the November 26 budget. The decision, aimed at closing a £30 billion fiscal gap through indirect measures, raised investor concerns about fiscal credibility. Data showed Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.1%, below expectations, while September GDP contracted month-on-month, weighing on sterling sentiment.

Commodities

Gold steadied near $4,080 per ounce after two days of losses. The upcoming non-farm payrolls report is expected to provide direction on Fed policy, with rate-cut odds for December now at 46%, down from 50% last week.

Silver advanced toward $54 per ounce, extending weekly gains above 10% as investors sought safety with lingering uncertainty. Physical demand also rose due to India’s wedding season and potential U.S. tariffs on silver imports, tightening supply outlooks.

Brent futures eased to $63.8 per barrel, trimming earlier gains after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed operations following a two-day shutdown caused by a drone strike. The brief disruption at the country’s second-largest export hub lifted prices more than 2% on Friday before stabilizing this week.

Fixed Income

U.S. 10-Year Treasury: The 10-year yield hovered near 4.1% after a three-session rally, supported by a hawkish Fed tone despite the earlier 25 bps rate cut. Chair Jerome Powell signaled that a December cut is not assured, while several officials cited persistent inflation concerns. The Fed announced it will end balance sheet runoff in December, reinvesting maturing assets into short-term Treasuries to ease funding strains.
UK 10-Year Gilt: Yields fell below 4.4%, the lowest since December 2024, as softer inflation data and easing food prices strengthened expectations of a 25 bps BoE cut in December. Traders now price a 68% chance of easing, while the OBR prepares to trim productivity forecasts by 0.3 points, widening the fiscal gap by £20 billion.
Japan 10-Year JGB: The yield held around 1.65% after the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in a 7–2 vote, with two members backing a 0.75% hike. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted steady recovery but warned of global trade risks, as Tokyo’s core inflation rose more than expected in October.
Germany 10-Year Bund: Yields rose to 2.65%, the highest since October 9, with strong inflation and hawkish messaging from both the ECB and Fed. German CPI climbed 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%, while annual inflation eased to 2.3%. Weak exports continue to hold back overall growth.

Other Economic Highlights

UK GDP (Q3): The UK economy expanded 0.1% QoQ, missing forecasts of 0.2% and slowing from 0.3% in Q2, as weaker household spending and investment dampened activity.
German CPI (October): Monthly inflation rose 0.3%, meeting expectations and suggesting modest upward price pressure in services and food, while energy costs stayed subdued.
U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction: Cleared at a 4.694% yield, slightly below the prior 4.734%, signaling firmer demand for long-term Treasuries.
U.S. 10-Year Note Auction: The auction’s high yield came in at 4.074%, down from 4.117%, showing improving appetite for longer-dated U.S. debt as investors assess post-shutdown fiscal implications.

As the backlog of U.S. indicators finally comes through, markets enter a stretch where each release carries heavier weight than usual. Currency moves, metal demand, and bond flows all reflect the same thing: investors want clarity after weeks of silence. With jobs data, inflation signals, and fresh guidance from major central banks on deck, the next few sessions will reveal whether the current shifts are temporary positioning or the start of a broader repricing across assets.

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