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Today we’ll introduce you to a trading instrument that doesn’t always get the attention amongst other instruments: gasoline futures.
These contracts let you trade or hedge wholesale gasoline prices without dealing with physical barrels. The benchmark contract follows RBOB gasoline in New York Harbor and is quoted in dollars per gallon.
Active traders use it for directional bets and spread plays, while fuel distributors, station chains, and refiners rely on it to lock in margins and stabilize costs.
At ZitaPlus, gasoline is available to trade under the symbol GOIL_FUT. This contract is designed to mirror wholesale gasoline prices and give both traders and institutions an easy way to hedge or speculate.
Each contract represents a barrel of gasoline, quoted in U.S. dollars. We position the product mainly for institutional traders, corporates, and larger hedgers who need meaningful exposure. Competitive spreads (~0.006) provide tighter risk management for our clients.
Gasoline futures are more than just speculative contracts. They are actively used by different players in the energy and financial markets, each with specific goals.
Refiners produce gasoline from crude oil, so they are exposed to the spread between crude input costs and gasoline output prices. To manage this risk, they often use crack spreads.
Example:
Fuel distributors and large gas station chains face risk from rising wholesale costs. Their main objective is locking in future purchase prices.
Example:
While jet fuel is the main exposure for airlines, many logistics companies and fleets are impacted by gasoline. They hedge to smooth out operating costs and budgets.
Example:
These firms trade gasoline futures as part of broader energy portfolios. They may go long gasoline vs. short crude to play refining margins, or trade calendar spreads between months. Their main interest is profit from relative moves, not physical delivery.
Prop desks and individual traders look at gasoline for short-term opportunities, often around EIA inventory reports, hurricane season, or the U.S. driving season. For example, they might go long in May ahead of expected summer demand and exit in August.
Gasoline future contracts are most valuable when price stability matters more than price direction. Refiners, for instance, rely on them to secure margins. By linking crude oil purchases with gasoline and heating oil sales in what’s known as a “crack spread,” they balance the risks of volatile input and output prices. Even if gasoline prices drop, the hedge helps keep refining margins predictable.
Fuel distributors and retail chains use futures in the opposite way. Their business model depends on buying gasoline at wholesale levels and reselling it with a stable markup. Locking in wholesale costs through futures contracts gives them a cushion against sudden price jumps, allowing them to plan retail pricing and manage customer relationships without worrying about every tick in the market.
Storage operators and wholesalers, meanwhile, face the risk of holding large volumes of gasoline in tanks. If prices fall, the value of their inventory shrinks immediately. A short position in futures helps protect that stored value until the fuel is sold, acting as insurance against unfavorable price moves.
Finally, companies sometimes hedge with futures even when the contract doesn’t perfectly match their exposure. This “cross-hedging” is common in markets where the available futures are based on U.S. specifications, while the company’s actual purchases may be of another grade or in another location. The hedge isn’t perfect, but it still balances a big portion of the risk.
Gasoline prices are influenced by a mix of global energy dynamics, local market conditions, and seasonal demand. While short-term moves often come from weekly inventory data or refinery news, the bigger picture ties back to crude oil, supply chains, and consumer demand cycles.
Gasoline is refined from crude oil. That means movements in crude benchmarks like Brent and WTI directly impact the prices. A rise in crude usually lifts gasoline. On the other hand, refining margins and seasonal demand can widen or narrow that relationship.
In 2008, when crude oil surged to almost $150 per barrel, U.S. gasoline prices also spiked above $4 per gallon. The parallel move showed how crude shocks filter directly into pump prices, even though refining spreads fluctuated along the way.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases weekly data on gasoline inventories and product supplied (a proxy for demand). Markets often react to surprises in these numbers, especially when stocks are tight.
In June 2022, EIA reported U.S. gasoline inventories at multi-year lows just as summer driving season was starting. Futures rallied, and retail gasoline topped $5 per gallon nationwide for the first time.
Gasoline demand follows seasonal patterns. Prices often rise ahead of the U.S. summer driving season, when consumption is strongest. Seasonal shifts in fuel specifications also push prices higher in spring. (Because of the switch to more expensive summer-grade gasoline).
Every year, from March to May, prices tend to stay firm as refineries complete the transition to summer-blend fuel. In 2013, this transition, combined with strong demand, lifted RBOB gasoline futures nearly 20% from late winter into early summer.
Refinery operations are a critical link in the gasoline supply chain. Planned maintenance, seasonal turnarounds, or unexpected outages reduce supply, often pushing prices higher. Especially the Gulf Coast refineries are key for the markets.
After Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in 2017, several major refineries shut down. Gasoline futures on NYMEX jumped over 10% in a matter of days, outpacing crude oil’s move. The disruption highlighted how refinery downtime can create short-term price spikes.
Speculating successfully on gasoline prices means keeping a close watch on the data that moves the market week after week. Here are the most important indicators and how they can be applied in practice:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes gasoline stocks, refinery utilization, and product supplied every Wednesday. Surprises often cause immediate moves in RBOB futures.
How to use it: Compare the reported inventory changes with analyst expectations. If stocks draw down more than expected, futures often rally.
Trader tip: Watch the “product supplied” line. Rising numbers signal stronger demand, especially in the summer driving season.
The crack spread shows the refining margin between crude oil and products like gasoline and diesel. Narrow figures can pressure refiners, while wide spreads suggest strong gasoline demand.
How to use it: Many traders track the 3:2:1 crack spread (3 barrels of crude vs. 2 barrels gasoline + 1 barrel diesel). A widening spread often supports gasoline prices even if crude is flat.
Trader tip: Overlay RBOB futures with WTI or Brent to spot relative strength or weakness.
The shape of the gasoline futures curve (contango or backwardation) reveals supply-demand balances.
How to use it: Backwardation (near-term higher than later months): signals tight supply, bullish short-term.
Contango (later months higher) often reflects oversupply, bearish short-term.
Trader tip: Calendar spreads (buying one contract month and selling another) can be used to trade this structure directly.
Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or severe winter storms can disrupt refinery output and logistics.
How to use it: Track storm forecasts during hurricane season (June–November). Even the risk of a shutdown can lift futures quickly.
Trader tip: Futures and options premiums often spike just before a storm makes landfall. Some traders position before forecasts rather than after.
Trading in gasoline prices comes with unique risks that can catch traders off guard if they don’t prepare properly. Here are the most common mistakes:
Not all gasoline is the same. The futures contract is tied to RBOB gasoline in New York Harbor, but physical gasoline in Houston, Europe, or Asia may trade at different prices. That gap is called basis risk.
In 2021, U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline was hit by refinery disruptions after a winter freeze, while New York Harbor supply remained steadier. Traders who hedged Gulf Coast barrels with RBOB futures saw their hedge only partially offset losses because local prices diverged from the benchmark.
Gasoline futures can swing sharply around weekly EIA inventory reports, seasonal fuel specification changes, or storm warnings. This volatility often catches short-term traders unprepared.
Example: During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, gasoline futures spiked more than 10% in a few days. Traders who were short futures as a routine hedge faced margin calls and forced liquidation, even though their physical positions were ultimately protected.
Like many commodity futures, gasoline contracts can thin out as they approach delivery. Wide bid-ask spreads make it harder to exit positions at a fair price.
A trader holding front-month contracts in 2020 found spreads widened sharply in the last few sessions before expiry. Closing the position cost more than expected, turning a profitable trade into a breakeven outcome.
Gasoline prices can move in cents per gallon, but the contract size (42,000 gallons) means even a small move can create big dollar swings. Traders using too much leverage risk wiping out accounts quickly.
A 5-cent move per gallon equals $2,100 per contract. A trader holding 50 contracts could be up or down more than $100,000 in a single session. Without proper margin planning, this kind of move can force liquidation.
Gasoline contracts are tools for both traders and businesses that need to manage their risk in the fuel markets. From refiners to distributors, it offers opportunities for hedging and speculation alike.
With ZitaPlus, you gain access to competitive pricing, transparent execution, and platforms built for both individual traders and institutions.
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