U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced confidence that President Trump’s tariff policies will ultimately survive Supreme Court scrutiny but cautioned that a loss could force the Treasury to refund nearly half of all tariffs collected, disrupting an estimated USD 750 billion to USD 1 trillion in trade. 

Trump escalated tensions with Europe, threatening a tariff probe in retaliation for the EU’s USD 3.5 billion fine on Google. He labeled the penalties “unfair” and hinted at retaliatory measures should the Supreme Court curtail his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

In markets, the U.S. dollar index steadied above 97.8 ahead of this week’s inflation data, with Friday’s payrolls showing just 22,000 new jobs in August, well below expectations. The weak report reinforced expectations for at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut later this month, with the possibility of a deeper move hinging on inflation outcomes. 

Check out today's analysis for more updates.