The euro maintained a two-week high against a softer dollar, supported by the ratified US-Iran peace agreement which reopened the Strait of Hormuz and initiated a 60-day nuclear talks window. Investors also continued evaluating last week's ECB decision to lift its deposit rate to 2.25%, alongside updated projections showing higher inflation and slower growth through 2027.
Gold held firm, consolidating a three-day rally sparked by the official signing of the US-Iran accord by President Donald Trump and VP JD Vance. The diplomatic breakthrough pulled down safe-haven demand and eased broader inflation fears, keeping bullion steady even as last week's ECB hike and firm US inflation data sustained tightening expectations.
The yen firmed as the Bank of Japan delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike to 1%, its highest level since 1995, to target energy-driven price pressures. With Governor Kazuo Ueda hospitalized, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida steered the policy decision and press conference, where investors focused on the future tightening pace, potential bond-taper pauses, and a July hike.
Bitcoin remained stable, extending its recovery from early-June lows as global risk appetite improved. The rebound was driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions and the Nasdaq debut of BlackRock's new Bitcoin yield ETF, though a tough overhead resistance zone continues to cap recent recovery attempts.
Brent crude steadied near multi-month lows after the signed US-Iran agreement stripped out the geopolitical supply-risk premium. Following the breakthrough, Iran's state oil company immediately lowered its July selling prices to Asian buyers, though lingering uncertainty over infrastructure repairs and lost production could delay full supply normalization.
The Nasdaq-100 surged to a multi-week high, breaking through key psychological milestones in a strong, tech-led rally. Plumbling crude oil prices and retreating Treasury yields fueled investor risk appetite, keeping the index steady as market focus converged on the upcoming interest rate decision.
The offshore yuan stabilized near a one-year high as the historic peace agreement reduced global energy costs and lifted market sentiment. Investors weighed a record $105 billion trade surplus against mixed domestic inflation data, which showed a minor rise in consumer prices alongside commodity-driven producer price increases.
Across all asset classes, immediate market attention has shifted to Wednesday's upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. This meeting represents the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with traders looking for directional cues regarding the outlook for interest rates.
Please take a look at the file below for further analysis.
