EUR/USD slipped below 1.14 to a near two-month low. The eurozone economy is showing greater resilience, with private-sector activity expanding at its fastest pace in roughly three and a half years. However, higher energy costs remain a concern for the ECB, particularly as policymakers assess whether renewed oil pressure could keep inflation elevated well into 2027.

Energy prices have again become a major source of uncertainty. Brent remains above $100 after rebounding sharply as negotiations between Washington and Tehran produced no immediate agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said the strait will remain restricted until its conditions are met, although diplomatic discussions continue.

Higher yields and dollar strength have pushed gold below $4,300, while USD/JPY remains close to 158 despite the BoJ’s recent rate hike. Japanese intervention risk is increasing as the yen approaches 160.

Risk appetite has also weakened, with the US 100 Tech Index retreating toward 30,400 and Bitcoin falling below $84,000. The immediate macro focus remains on whether strong US activity and renewed energy inflation force central banks to maintain tighter policy for longer.