A September hold is now expected, with a year-end hike no longer fully priced. Next up are the FOMC minutes and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

Trump threatened military action against Oman if it interferes with US efforts as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to a deal over the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran 60-day toll-free memorandum is expiring, potentially allowing Iran to impose tolls, while Bessent warned of new sanctions on both countries.

US stock futures extended losses after the Dow fell 0.51%, S&P 500 0.52%, and Nasdaq 0.32% Monday. Higher oil prices and a 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007 added pressure. Earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart are next in focus.