If energy costs stay low, central banks may gain room to ease policy, but any renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could reignite inflation and volatility.

US inflation reached 3.3% in March, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline costs, though core inflation remained steady at 2.6%. While gold and silver face pressure from rising bond yields and a stronger dollar (DXY), commodities continue to outperform traditional assets as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Investors are now focused on upcoming Islamabad peace talks and US producer price data to gauge the next move for interest rates and energy supply.