⁠Trump Rules Out New Iran Strikes Until Midterm Elections

US President Donald Trump said Washington is not planning further military strikes against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

He also described talks with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as “constructive,” arguing that economic pressure is beginning to produce results. His remarks raised expectations that tensions in the Middle East could ease in the near term, offering some relief after weeks of uncertainty.

Oil Flows Through Hormuz Show Signs of Recovery

One of the most noteworthy details in Trump’s remarks concerned the Strait of Hormuz. According to the president, approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway on Wednesday. If confirmed, the figure would suggest that oil shipments are approaching pre-war levels, signaling a potential recovery in one of the world’s most critical energy supply routes.

A sustained improvement in traffic through the strait could help ease global supply concerns and reduce some of the pressure on energy prices.

Strong Treasury Demand Despite High Yields

Trump’s comments also helped US Treasuries recover part of their earlier losses. Demand was particularly strong at the 30-year Treasury auction, where non-dealer bidders accounted for more than 93% of purchases. The result showed that appetite for long-term US government debt remains strong despite uncertainty over the economic outlook.

However, borrowing costs are still historically high. The latest 30-year auction cleared at one of the highest yields in approximately 26 years, reflecting persistent concerns over inflation, government borrowing needs, and fiscal risks.

Energy Supply Risks are Here to Stay

Despite the more encouraging signals, the outlook for oil remains uncertain. The progress of US-Iran talks and the recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will be important in determining whether the recent easing of tensions can last.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias has forced temporary shutdowns at some oil production facilities in the US Gulf region, adding another potential source of disruption to energy supplies. While Trump's remarks have provided short-term relief, geopolitical developments and weather-related production risks could still trigger fresh volatility in oil prices.

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