Jobs Week Takes Over (29 June-3 July)

The dollar stayed firm, keeping pressure on major currencies as attention shifts to this week's US jobs report and Fed expectations.

Oil rebounded on Middle East tensions, while gold and silver lost ground as diplomatic hopes returned.

US Treasury yields steadied, while UK and Japanese bond yields moved higher. UK GDP, Eurozone CPI, US manufacturing data, JOLTS, ADP, and Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls headline a busy economic calendar before Friday's US holiday.

Currencies

Dollar Index: The dollar index held near 101.3 after last week's rally to its highest level in more than a year. Focus has shifted to this week's US jobs report, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm stance on inflation continues to support expectations for tighter policy. Markets currently price in three rate hikes this year, with the probability of a September move above 60%.
Euro: The euro remained below $1.14, trading near its weakest level since June 2025 as broad dollar strength continued to dominate. Although the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points this month, President Christine Lagarde signaled there was no need for a more aggressive response to Middle East developments, adding that inflation remains on track to return to target over the medium term.
British Pound: Sterling edged up 0.04% to 1.3203, but the broader trend remained weak. The pound has fallen 1.87% over the past month and 3.85% over the past year against the dollar. For historical context, sterling reached an all-time high of 2.86 in December 1957.
Japanese Yen: The yen traded near 161.7 per dollar, remaining close to levels last seen in 1986. Retail sales rose 5.3% in May, the fastest pace since November 2023, supported by government stimulus. Combined with recent comments from Bank of Japan officials, the data reinforced expectations for additional rate increases this year.

Commodities

Gold Hits the Brakes

Gold eased to around $4,050 per ounce after renewed tensions between the US and Iran briefly lifted oil prices and revived inflation concerns. Despite attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, both sides later agreed to suspend military action ahead of peace talks scheduled to resume this week in Doha.

Crude Climbs, Caution Remains

Brent crude recovered above $72 per barrel after touching a four-month low. Recent exchanges between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz briefly supported prices before both sides agreed to pause military operations ahead of this week's negotiations.

Silver Trades on the Defensive

Silver slipped to around $58.5 per ounce, ending a two-session recovery as higher oil prices following the latest US-Iran tensions revived inflation concerns.

Fixed Income

US 10-Year Treasury Yield: The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.38% after last week's decline. Attention is now centered on the monthly employment report, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: The UK 10-year gilt yield rose 3 basis points to 4.7379%. While still 11.8 basis points below last month's level, it remains 22.6 basis points higher than a year ago following the sharp rise since March 2026.
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield: Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 2.65%, ending a three-session decline. Strong retail sales, up 5.3% in May, reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, June 30

The week begins with UK GDP for the first quarter at 06:00, with quarterly growth expected at 0.6% and annual growth at 1.1%. In the US, the June Chicago PMI is due at 13:45 (forecast 60.0, previous 62.7). At 14:00, attention turns to JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 7.280M, previous 7.618M) and CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 94.2, previous 93.1).

Wednesday, July 1

The euro area releases preliminary June CPI at 09:00, with annual inflation expected at 3.0%, down from 3.2%. US data follows with ADP Employment Change at 12:15 (forecast 118K, previous 122K), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 13:45 (forecast 55.7), and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 (forecast 53.7, previous 54.0) alongside ISM Prices Paid (forecast 79.0, previous 82.1). Crude Oil Inventories are released at 14:30 (previous -6.088M).

Thursday, July 2

The week's key event arrives at 12:30 with the US labor market report. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected at 114K (previous 172K), while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, and Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 220K.

Friday, July 3

US financial markets will remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

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